I plan to record a 3 to 5 minute voice memo and embed it here but I don’t have that luxury at the moment. Not to mention, if I don’t publish my first newsletter, there’s a chance I never do so we’re going to hammer this thing out.
It’s Friday, 9am. I have zero subscribers but you have to start somewhere. I’ll get into my background when I knocks on wood have an audience but for now lets just say I’m a very profitable DFS player who spends minimal time in the research streets.
Now to the draw, we don’t know what matches are going to be on the slate quite yet so this will be a helicopter view of plays I like without taking into account salaries, game theory, etc. We will get to all those things in time.
SINNER - tough luck Vit
Popyrin is a bit Jekyll and Hyde - but I’ll still go with the upside of Popy
Bu has been steady on hardcourts, give me my guy over Royer
I don’t trust Shapo as far as I can throw him - probably a stay away for me
CILIC - may be a lot of tiebreaks w/ Bublik but I can’t do it w/ Bublik anymore, sorry
Schoolkate - don’t love it over Sonego
Borges over Holt but probably a stay away
TOMMY PAUL
Perricard v. Musetti is one of those that depends on the salaries - if Perricard is a low $ guy, he’s great value on hardcourts with his serve but Musetti is uber talented, may be better leverage plays elsewhere
Halys over Goffin
Brooksby vs. Vukic - who knows, pick your poison
Cobolli, Diallo, Munar, Bergs, Draper, Zverev all winners
RBA v. Fearnley - I love RBA but he’s a bit over the hill - toss up IMO
Monfils v. Saf is a fade - depends on who can play to their ceiling but should be a close one
FAA
UPSET ALERT - Walton to push Humbert
Kova, Boyer, Rublev - don’t know their opponents yet - you’re on your own
KHACHANOV SMASH
Maj over Dellien - I liked what I saw from him vs. Korda
Martinez - depends on opponent
Cerundolo
Tsisipas over Muller - anyone else against Stef and I would pick against him
Medjedovic - DARK HORSE if the draw opens up for him
Gaston? Don’t know his opponent yet
DEMON
NOVAK but it could get a bit shaky against Tien, he’s a gamer
Korda over Norrie but his serve will be the critical component
Leaning Michelsen but Comesana can pull the upset - a DK value play I may look into
Tiafoe
Skipping the matches we don’t have set yet
Rune over VDZ but on his day, VDZ can make this very competitive
Mensik over Jarry but I don’t love it - both big servers
Fonseca on talent alone
Machac, Fritz both winners
Moutet v. Thompson can go either way - stay away on DK IMO
Fade Mannarino - he makes matches close and ugly
Lehecka over Coric
Etcheverry, Djere, Ruud, Med, Navone, Rindy, Fokina, Darderi, Bellucci
I’m obviously not going to pick against Alcaraz but I’m sure he’d rather see anyone but the big serving Opelka - still think he handles him relatively easily but may not be a great DFS play
This will for the most part be a listenable newsletter moving forward. I got halfway through the draw and realized typing was a bad idea. Stay tuned for the Women’s Draw first look.
Winning DFS is hard. Luck has something to do with it.